Hello CSRs,

We believe most you know that back in week 4 we picked Carolina as the most likely team to win the Super Bowl. At the halfway point in the season (week 10) we revisited which teams we thought were most likely to play in the big game, and while things in the NFC had shifted around considerably, our pick had not. In the NFC the debate was between Carolina and New York, and this is how we viewed the upcoming regular season matchup would affect the playoffs. "...Interestingly enough, New York hosts Carolina in week 16, which regardless of the outcome will help the Panthers. If Carolina loses the game and the #1 seed, they will at least have the experience of playing in New York once that year. The same cannot be said for New York if Carolina wins the regular season matchup." We feel this game is a win-win situation for Carolina, which was also how we felt about New York last year when they hosted New England in week 17 of the regular season.

CAR @ NYG

Our line: Carolina by 11

Read his explanation after the jump...

As the season progresses, Real Points (strength of schedule) and Win Grade (team fundamentals) both have a strong history of becoming more accurate in assessing football games. By the time weeks 15 and 16 roll around, if the rankings agree on a pick, the chance of a mismatch between two teams overruling the rankings becomes quite low. As things stand right now, both Real Points and Win Grade favor the New York Giants to defeat the Carolina Panthers, especially at home. But we have Carolina favored by two scores, so Carolina must have some fairly strong matchups in its favor, right? Exactly. Let's break them down.

Overplaying your potential. This is defined as a team who is getting better results than their stats show the team should be getting (for instance consistently winning games even though a team usually loses the turnover battle). Usually this is a sign of a team that has peaked too early, or has had more than the usually number of bounces of the football go in their favor over the course of the season. It's not the strongest indicator of an upset, but it's key in setting the stage for one. Right now the Giants are rated as having moderately overplayed their potential this season, more so in recent weeks, which brings us to our next mismatch.

Trending under the league average. Late in the season, this is a very strong indicator of a team that is ripe for a loss. There are plenty of examples of teams that got going in the wrong direction in the last few weeks of the season and were unable to turn it around, most notably the '07 Cowboys and '05 Colts. Over the last 3 games New York is 1-2, scoring 15 points per game while averaging only 90 yards on the ground and 189 yards through the air offensively. Defensively they have been a little better giving up only 16 points per game, but have allowed opponents 111 yards rushing and 213 yards passing per game. This has not been a surprise to us, as New York's schedule has been just brutal and is starting to take a big toll on the team. They had their bye week way back in week 4, and unbelievably have not faced an opponent with an under .500 record since week 7 when they hosted San Francisco. That makes 8 straight games against winning opposition, including Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Dallas twice, and Philadelphia twice. Think its coincidence that injuries are becoming more frequent on the Giants team? We certainly don't. They won't admit it, but they are being worn down, and have little relief in sight.

Now don't get the wrong idea that New York could lose to just any team this week, because they wouldn't. It will still take a team that has solid fundamentals and strength to knock the defending champions off of their perch. Unfortunately for New York, Carolina fits that bill nicely. What we use as a measuring stick in this situation is something called %W. It is a rating of how well you have performed against your schedule. The easier the schedule you have played, the better your %W should be. The league average is at .54 at the moment, which correlates with about a 7-7 record and the fact that there are currently 17 teams in the league that are above .500. Below is a list of teams in order of their strength of schedule and what their %W is.

• 23. Tampa Bay (.67)
• 24. Atlanta (.68)
• 25. Carolina (.82)
• 26. New England (.75)
• 27. San Francisco (.26)
• 28. Denver (.77)

Notice the big jump Carolina has from Tampa Bay and Atlanta, and that even though New England, San Francisco, and Denver have played easier schedules, they have a lower %W. This should give you an idea of the relative strength of Carolina against the rest of the league. This is more than a high enough %W rating to move Carolina from underdog to favorite against New York when you consider the two previous factors.

Putting it all together, how do we see things progressing on the field? We actually expect this game to be very similar to how the recent game against Tampa Bay unfolded, minus at least one of the interceptions thrown by Delhomme. We see this game being very back and forth for most of the first half with both teams having success mainly on the ground. Carolina is a team heating up at the right time, and staying with New York in the first half should only build on the confidence they have gained in recent weeks. Look for the Carolina offensive line to make a big push in the third quarter, really breaking things open for Williams and Stewart, with the rest of the offense to follow shortly after. With the fatigue of the game, injuries, and season weighing heavily upon them, we see New York limping through the 4th quarter in this one, giving Carolina a more comfortable victory than most would expect, and in the process handing the reins of the NFC over to the Panthers, at least for now.

ITN rankings:
-New York #1
-Carolina #6