Week 15: Panthers @ Giants Defensive Preview
We all know what's at stake this Sunday, first place for the NFC playoffs, but for the Panthers there's even more on the line. The Giants have already clinched a playoff spot, the Panthers have not. If the Panthers lose out and Dallas, Tampa, and Atlanta win out, we would miss the playoffs because of tie-breakers. While I see the chance of that happening at less than 5%, I would rather step through the front door instead of sneak in the back. Yet again, since we don't play until Sunday night, we may already know our playoff future, meaning since all three of those previous teams will have played, if any one of them lose we clinch at least a playoff spot.
Getting back to the Giants. Our opponent this week can be a monster on the field, with their strength being the ground game. Stat wise, while the Giants have the edge, for the majority we are closely matched. The one glaring difference-Panther rushing defense at 18th and the Giants rushing offense at #1. For the Panthers' defense this will be the biggest challenge.
Not considering any inactive players (Plaxico mainly), both teams do have some concern at injury. The Panthers DT Maake Kemoeatu was seen using crutches and a boot after Monday's practice. Also, RG Keydrick Vincent had to leave the game early against Denver. For the Giants, Brandon Jacobs is uncertain, and during the Dallas game RT Kareem McKenzie and LG Rich Seubert both left with injuries. It to early to tell if any of them will be able to play. Both teams are saying very little about their situations right now.
My gut feeling is that Kemo has less than a 20% chance of playing, but pure speculation. For the Giants, I have no idea about their O-linemen, but for Jacob's my gut is telling me 75% chance of playing right now. If Jacob's is out, the impact of Kemo missing a game is reduced but still significant. And vice versa, if Jacobs plays and Kemo is out, that could be the difference in this game.
We are not sure how the Panthers will adjust for Kemo being out. Anything from rotating DT Darwin Walker and Gary Gibson, to moving over either DT Charles Johnson or Tyler Brayton, or a combination of these options. The good news is that we have played 3 DE at times in passing situations but we will have to see how they fair against the run.
These two teams are built very similarly as well, power running game to setup the pass. Both Jake Delhomme and Eli Manning are more game managers and both have very similar stats.
| Jake Delhomme | Eli Manning | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Att | 375 | 433 |
| Comp | 221 | 261 |
| Comp % | 58.9 | 60.3 |
| Passing Yards | 2853 | 2938 |
| Yards / Att | 7.6 | 6.8 |
| TD | 14 | 20 |
| INT | 12 | 10 |
| Comp for 1st down | 133 | 151 |
| Sacked | 19 | 23 |
| Passer Rating | 82.0 | 86.4 |
For the Giants, missing two starters on their o-line could be trouble. The Giants are better at run blocking than pass blocking and if either or both of their starting line is out could spell trouble. They gave up 8 sacks to the Cowboys and now 23 for the season. With the high likelyhood of the Panthers need to use a 3 DE set, keeping Eli upright would be that much harder.
The keys for the Panthers on stopping the Giants is pressure on Manning when they have to throw and limit the ground attack (unless a miracle happens, we are not doing to shut it down). Regardless of who is starting on our defensive line, Jon Beason is going to have to play his best game of the season and dropping eight in the box is not out of the question.
This means Chris Gamble and Ken Lucas will have to work a lot of single coverage with only one safety up top. Before Plaxico Burress was suspended this was causing teams major problems. While the Giants still have quality receivers losing their best receiver changes the way you have to defend against them. Just imagine the consequences to the Panthers if we lost Steve Smith.
Defensively this game has loads of challenges. The Panthers offense have been hitting their stride and hopefully that continues but without getting into their challenges, let just say they cannot do it alone this week. Against the Broncos the defense had one of it's best days in quite a few games, but was it because the Broncos had no running attack or that our defense actually stepped up. Probably some of both, but we will find out Sunday for sure.
Correction: Incorrectly listed Travelle Wharton as leaving the game against Denver Updated to Keydrick Vencent.
0 recs |
22 comments
|
Comments
the offesnive line
The biggest challenge this week is for our offensive line. We need four yards a carry, and Jake needs time to throw. The best way to stop the Giants offense is to keep them on the sideline. We can’t do that if we run for 40 yards (like our 1st game against the Bucs). If we get some decent holes to run through early in the game, I think we come away with a 10 point win. One or two big plays to Smitty is all we need in the form of big plays from the passing game. I’m completely happy with Jake continually completing six yard passes on 3rd on 4. Our offense has been handling defenses pretty well and scoring a lot of points. We’re going to do it again. I think we control the ball for 32 minutes and win this one 27 to 14. Let’s not forget that the NFL’s TD leader and his offensive line know he got the shaft on the Pro Bowl roster.
by usana_gaines on Dec 17, 2008 1:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Did I just read that right?
I’m completely happy with Jake continually completing six yard passes on 3rd on 4.
You ever think you’d say that back in week 5? Yeah, me neither. Feels good, doesn’t it?
I agree with you, I think the single largest challenge we’ll face is to our offensive line. It’s one thing to blow backup DTs off the ball like we did against Tampa (anybody else remember the fact that they had Ryan Sims starting?). It’s something completely different to blow an elite defensive line off the ball.
One thing I really like about the way our O-line has been put together this season is that we’ve got these massive, mobile guards plowing a path through the defense. If Vincent can’t go, it looks like we might have Jeremy “The Fountain” Bridges stepping in, as he did after the injury against Denver.
You have no idea how excited I get by the prospect of a four-Tackle, one-Center offensive line! That’s a serious commitment to size and power! I just hope all those big bodies don’t clog the throwing lanes, because batted balls (or balls bouncing off of helmets) is the last thing we need.
by r3 on Dec 17, 2008 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, I have no worries about missing Vincent
Bridges can get the job done. We just need to avoid 3rd and longs and exposing Jake to a lot of hits from the DE’s
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
by Jaxon on Dec 17, 2008 11:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jacobs is so important
to the Giants in the playoffs that it wouldn’t surprise me if we don’t play him this week unless he is truly 100%. As big as this game is, it makes sense. Personally, I’d rather risk playing on the road than not having him healthy enough to make a difference later.
I meant to ask Jaxon when he answered questions on our site yesterday if Fox could be counted on to blitz a lot more if Jacobs didn’t play or if he would likely count on the front four to pressure Eli most of the time?
by giant fan since 57 on Dec 17, 2008 5:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Panthers usually have to blitz
to get a pass rush. The front four rarely get pressure by themselves except on a few plays were Peppers or Charles Johnson beat their man. If Jacobs plays I would expect more run blitzes in an attempt to get hits on him behind the line since he’s not a threat to break one long. When Ward or Bradshaw is in the game they may not run blitz.
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
by Jaxon on Dec 17, 2008 8:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What Jaxon said
except I’ll add that the Panthers don’t blitz much, especially compared to the teams you’re used to facing in the East. They show blitz a lot, and come with it maybe 30% of the time. Even then, they’re trying to attack one position, and will probably drop a DE. It’s not often that they rush more than four.
But you guys play the Eagles on a regular basis, blitzes shouldn’t be a problem for you.
by r3 on Dec 17, 2008 10:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds like NFL Draft to me.
First pick in the 2nd round should be a DT with a lot of beef on him. John Fox usually finds a lot of talent with his first pick, as he hasn’t had a bust ever since he became Head Coach. Till then we’re going to have to make pressure during the blitz.
I see us getting back to the fearsome foursome in the next few years, just not immediately.
"Once again the trowsers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn
by Revshawn on Dec 17, 2008 12:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Needs are minimal right now.
We have a pretty solid foundation of a team. If we can resign Jordan and Peppers (no small task) our other biggest needs would be DT and WR. As usual we need a good complement at WR to Smith. Sure Moose is doing well, but he’s days are numbered.
by LittleKing on Dec 17, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
good point
Good point about Jacobs, but I have a feeling he’s going to play. Last season, the Giants needed a moral pick me up before the playoffs and they got it against New England. Then when they played again in the Super Bowl, the Giants had more quality players (Bradshaw, Alford, Tyree, Smith) than in the first game. This time around, the Giants need the same thing. I don’t think they want a three game losing streak at this part of the season against playoff caliber teams, regardless of what happens in the final week.
by usana_gaines on Dec 17, 2008 6:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
one more thing
One of our biggest problems on defense is getting off the field on 3rd down. Maybe Jacobs only plays a handful of plays, but if it’s 3rd and 1 or 2, sending Bradshaw or Ward into the line probably isn’t going to work. Jacobs makes his money on those plays, and if he only gets in the game to convert a handful of those, it might be the difference in a win or a loss. However, I’m still sticking with my original prediction of 27 – 14 because I think the Giants defense isn’t ready for us.
by usana_gaines on Dec 17, 2008 6:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
the Giants defense isn’t ready for us
That’s something I never thought I’d hear, earlier this season.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 17, 2008 8:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
3-3 on the road
Even though we have one of the best receivers, running backs, and o-lines in the league… we still haven’t seen a single dominant performance on the road. 3-3, squeaked a couple out, and struggled against some bad teams. This is reason for concern until we SEE otherwise… hopefully this Sun! For that I predict they barely win this one 17-13.
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 17, 2008 9:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
It was RG Vincent that left the game early
not Wharton. I lot of people are worried about Jacobs but Ward and Bradshaw could hurt us more. Its the quick, shifty backs that have given the Panthers fits this season. I just hope we force Eli to throw and hopefully he’ll have one of his off days.
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
by Jaxon on Dec 17, 2008 10:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lets not overlook the Giants passing game
TE Kevin Boss could hurt us on 3rd down and WR Amani Toomer has a knack for getting open deep. There’s a reason he’s lasted what …30 years… (seems like) in the league…:) We’ll need another big game from our safeties.
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
by Jaxon on Dec 17, 2008 11:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
good point
fox loves to leave the middle of the field wide open… never understood that
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 17, 2008 8:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We need an early lead
This Giants squad will have big time trouble playing from behind for a ton of reasons:
1: No Plax
2: Banged up Giants O Line
3: Their D is pass-rush-oriented
4: Our running game is hitting on all cylinders
5:Their running game sets the tone for their offense
Put them in obvious passing situations, and keep us in rushing ones- and I can see the Panthers breaking some hearts in NY.
by the bomb dot com on Dec 17, 2008 12:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Then we need to score quick again in the 1st quarter
on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city
by southtunnel on Dec 17, 2008 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
things I saw
SO I watched the highlight film of the Denver game on NFL Network, and I saw some things I liked. Here’s how I think it might play out in NY.
First of all, we’ve always used this little pass in the flat to Smitty that didn’t work. When Moose is blocking, though, instead of Drew Carter, Colbert, or Jarrett, 2 guys get blocked and Smitty is gone. We’ll know quickly if the Giants are ready for that because most receivers in the league don’t block that well.
If Jake has enough time, Smitty will get open. It doesn’t matter what anyone else does cuz Jake might not even look at them. But give him time, and it’s a 30 yard play.
On one Charles Johnson sack, he lined up at DT on the left side with Peppers lined up next to him as the LDE. I like it. To come to the line of scrimmage and see Johnson in front of you, when you’ve been facing Kemo all day is a new challenge. JOhnson is a back-up, too, so he’s usually a lot fresher and more energized than a starting O-linemen in the second half.
Foxy isn’t playing around on this run to our first of 2 straight Superbowl wins. Yeah! I said it. I know, Jaxon, ridiculously optimistic. But I still said it.
by usana_gaines on Dec 18, 2008 1:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
check this out - it's just so much fun to watch
by usana_gaines on Dec 18, 2008 1:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Since this is what really gets me excited
I’ll point out a couple of massive blocks from non-linemen that deserve attention.
40 seconds in, watch Moose come from the top of the screen on a short 3rd down run and completely destroy the safety.
2:14 in, Hoover embarrasses Mister Derrick Brooks as he clears a path on the night’s final touchdown run. Talk about going ‘all out’ on a block!
I believe I’ve already mentioned Smitty’s two massive de-cleaters during JStew’s long runs. 1:04 in is when he cartwheel’s the DE, then the next play he cripples the safety. Then I watched this past week’s NFL Matchup, and Merrill Hodge pointed out what he called “the block of the year, maybe the block of the century!” Watch at 2:08 as Moose crashes down on the safety and buries him in the earth. The DE falls over them, freeing up Otah to run downfield and take on the secondary, netting at least another 5 yards on that run. I got so excited watching Stewart’s stiff-arm, I missed the rest of that play’s greatness.
Our running success is a combination of many factors, but when your WRs and FB are as stout and aggressive as our guys are, your running game is going to be damn near impossible to stop.
by r3 on Dec 19, 2008 12:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Crushing blocks are just as much fun to watch as big hit tackles
and J-Stew stiff arm of Barber into the ground is one for the ages
I blog the Carolina Panthers at www.catscratchreader.com
by Jaxon on Dec 19, 2008 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs






















