NFC South Could Finish Tied

On a back to earth note, I was looking at the remaining schedule for the NFC South and realized it would be very possible, albeit highly unlikely, that the NFC South could end the season tied at 10-6. Here's the South's remaining schedule.

Team Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
CAR (10-3) Denver @ Giants @ Saints
TAM (9-4) @ ATL Chargers Raiders
ATL (8-5) Bucs @ Viking Ram
NO (7-6) @ Bears @ Lions Panthers

And here how the rest of the season have to play out. I've tried to make the W & L as realistic as possible. Probably the two most unlikely events to make this happen would that the Panthers would have to lose out and the Saints have to win out since the Panthers are currently 10-3 and the Saints are 7-6.


As for Tampa and Atlanta, lets skip their match-up this week since they play each other. Since Tampa is currently 9-5, they could only win one additional game. That win would most likely be against the Raiders. So that means they would have to lose this weekend against Atlanta and next week against the Chargers.

Then for Atlanta, since they beat Tampa, that would put them at 9-5. They should beat the Rams in week 17, which means they would need to lose to the Vikings in week 16 to put them at 10-6.

Again the W & L for each team is doable, just unlikely. I would expect the Panthers will win at least one, if not more of their last 3 games, and the Saints will probably fall at least once.

But if this happened who would win the division? I am no expert in the tie-breaker calculations, but I'll do my best.

The first thing is division wins. But with this scenario we would all be 3-3 in the division. Second is common games. I believe the only common games, besides our division, would be the NFC North and AFC West opponents.

OPP-> Denver Chargers Chiefs Raiders Bears Vikings Packers Lions
NO L W W W W* L W W*
*Games yet to be played, but following above example.

According to the chart above we all finish 6-2. The third, in the three-or-more procedures, is conference record where the first separation occurs. Carolina is currently 7-3 in the conference, but have two left to play and losing both would put us at 7-5. The Saints 4-5 with 3 left, since they win out, they would also be 7-5. Tampa is 8-3 and would only lose one more conference game-putting them at 8-4, the same with Atlanta so they would finish 8-4.

This is where I'm not able to break it down any further* and hard to do since the next one is strength of victory and would depend on the scores of the remaining games. But basically you see that Tampa and Atlanta are tied at the top (both 8-3 conf rec), then Carolina and New Orleans are tied at the bottom (both 7-4 conf rec). It's a pretty interesting prospect and I would venture it would be the first time in NFL history.

I don't foresee this happening, but it is an interesting prospect this late in the year.

*If anybody can break down the current strength of victory feel free to post in 
comments and I'll update this post.
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