Hello CSRs,

If you read our previous two posts on here, this prediction might surprise you a little bit. After all we were just talking about how Carolina was ranked #1 and that they were our early season pick to reach the Super Bowl. Well they still are, but that doesn't mean we believe they will win every game from here to January. We hope we do not offend, this is just our honest opinion on this week's matchup.

CAR @ TB

Our line: Tampa Bay by 10

This is our game of the week. Both teams are ranked in the top ten and are quite evenly matched on offense and defense. The difference in this matchup is that the battle will be waged on Tampa Bay's turf. Now playing at home by itself is not enough to call for an upset; a team needs to have a few mismatches in their favor that they can magnify and use to turn the game into a victory for them. We just said that these two teams are evenly matched on offense and defense, so where are these mismatches going to come from? Our system has only one mismatch, but it is one that affects almost every aspect of a team on offense and defense: Strength of schedule. Tampa Bay has played against tougher opponents so far in 2008, especially in the last 2 games. Tampa hosted the 21st ranked Pack two weeks ago before traveling to play at the 6th ranked Broncos last week. Meanwhile Carolina is coming off of consecutive home games against the 16th and 26th ranked teams in the league. It is easier said than done to play a horrible opponent at home and then travel to play a tough opponent on the road. Just ask teams that have beaten Detroit and Kanas City, who are 1-5 in their following game. After a evenly matched and hard hitting start to the game, we think the Tampa Bay passing game will find some success in the second half while the defense plays bend but don't break football to give their team a very big division win.

ITN rankings:

- Carolina #3

- Buccaneers #6