Carolina Panthers Fantasy Analysis

I’ve been playing FFL for almost ten years now and I definitely classify myself as a FFL nut. I never used to care about more than one or two games a week prior. Now, my wife will ask on a Monday night "Why are you so riveted watching a route between Green Bay and Minnesota? My response "I need Chester Taylor to get 30 more yards!" That said, I have to say one of my golden rules in fantasy is to not pick players from your own team because you tend to overpay by picking them too soon. Of course that will not apply to Steve Smith this year.

Since fantasy drafting kicks into high gear after the second preseason game I thought the time was right. Here’s my analysis of Panther players that have at least some fantasy value.

Steve Smith
Smith is a stud WR who should be one of the top 3 WR’s selected of any fantasy draft. I see his production rebounding to 2005 levels if he stays healthy. That’s 1300+ yards and 12 TD’s. He should go in the second round around pick 15-20.

Jake Delhomme
I drafted Jake last year on one of my teams and ended up benching him after a couple weeks. Without Smith in the first two games he just never got into a rhythm He had a few good games fantasy wise but otherwise was a #2 QB at best. This year I see him rebounding a little bit but given the Panthers desire to run the ball he may not rise to #1 QB level. I fact I doubt it. He should be an adequate spot starter and bye week fill-in depending on the match-up. You can probably get Jake in the eighth round and if he returns to his 2005 level he could be a nice surprise.

DeShaun Foster
DeShaun may provide the best value of any drafted Panther. Many people have DeAngelo rated higher because of his potential. The problem is that Foster is still the starter. That means Foster could slide to the eighth round or lower which is good value in my book for a starting RB. He has been playing well in the preseason so barring injury I think he is in line for 15-20 carries per game. Also, the Panthers are throwing more screen passes and short passes in the flat to the RB so that should add to his production.  When you factor in that the Panthers start the season against some lesser run defenses in St. Louis and Houston, Foster could be a nice early season #2 RB.

DeAngelo Williams
DeAngelo has a lot of potential but that potential will only come into play early in the Fantasy season if Foster goes down with an injury. Sure he could break a couple plays for TD’s but you can’t bank on that. The problem is that he is still not the starter, meaning he’s looking at 5 to 10 carries a game to start the season and maybe a couple passes. On top of that Foster has played well in the preseason and head coach John Fox is not the type of coach to bench a starter for a second year player. I wouldn’t take Williams higher than Foster but would take a flyer on him in the eighth or ninth round and stash him on my bench. More than likely someone will take him sooner though.

Jeff King(TE)
Going into camp we’re not sure which TE will get the pass plays. After two preseason games its apparent Jeff King will be the starter and should get 3-4 catches a game. Since Jeff is an unknown quantity you can most likely get him off the wire after game one. Even though the TE should be more involved this year I can’t see anyone using a Panther TE unless their starter is on a bye and match-up is favorable. There’s a 20% chance King becomes a consistent performer and worthy of adding to your roster.

Defense/Special Teams (DST)
Prior to the preseason I would have rated the Panther DST top 10 but after two preseason games I’m not so sure. The pass defense is not looking good and there has been little pressure on the QB. The run defense has looked good but that will matter little if their opponents are throwing for 350 yards per game. In spite of the Chris Harris signing the Panthers are weak at Safety and it has showed. Yet the Panthers weakness is well known which should cause them to slide down draft boards. Though rookie Ryne Robinson should help the return game I don't see that impacting the fantasy value. I would take them as a second DST in a late round and plan on using them as a bye week replacement or against some of their weaker match-ups. It really kills me to say that because I had hoped the defense would be the strength of the team.

Dwayne Jarrett
Jarrett has played so little so far its been hard to get a read on him. Many expected the #2 WR spot to be handed to him but he hasn’t stepped up yet. A hamstring tweak set him back but he has shown soft hands and the ability to make the hard catch. Unless he really breaks out in the remaining preseason games and earns the #2 spot he should go undrafted. Keep an eye on him because if gains some confidence he may turn into a spot starter based on the match-up. I will shy away from any rookie WR not Calvin Johnson. I think there is a 20% chance Jarrett turns into a reliable fantasy option this season.

Drew Carter
Drew may win the #2 WR spot by default but even so I don’t see much fantasy value in him. He may have a couple good games here and there but they will be hard to predict. I will be passing on him and might pick him off the wire after producing for a couple games. There’s about a 10% chance of that happening.

David Carr
Carr will have no fantasy value unless he becomes the starter. That will not happen prior to the start of the season so there's no point in drafting him. If Delhomme should get hurt then he would be worth grabbing off the wire just in case he finally realizes his potential and you need a QB.